Top 3 Gold Plays for Election Year 2024

In election years, gold prices have historically pushed aggressively higher.

In fact, iIf we go back to the presidential elections of 2004 through 2020, we can clearly see that in the months leading up to the election, gold prices pushed higher.

Mostly thanks to election uncertainty.

Then, once the election is over, we’ll typically see a post-election pullback in gold, which offers us a second opportunity to go long gold.

For example:

  • Prior to the 2004 presidential election (Bush v. Gore), gold ran from $421.50 in January to a high of $435 heading into the election. We then saw a post-election dip to about $413 in February before it ran to a high of $540 by December 2005.
  • Prior to the 2008 presidential election (Obama v. McCain), gold ran from about $860 to a high of $936 in October. It then collapsed to a low of $708.30 thanks in large part to the subprime fiasco. Following that dip, gold would eventually rally back to a high of $1,185 by November 2009.
  • Prior to the 2012 election (Obama v. Romney), gold rallied from a January low of $1,556.80 to a high of $1,733 by the time of the election. Following that election, gold collapsed to a low of $1,395 by April 2013.
  • Prior to the 2016 election (Trump v. Clinton), gold rallied from a January low of $1,061 to a high of $1,308 by the election. Gold then plummeted post-election to a low of about $1,125 before recovering to $1,309.30 by December.
  • Prior to the 2020 election (Trump v. Gore), gold jumped from a January low of about $1,519.70 to a $1,912.20 by November. Post-election, gold dipped to about $1,776.50 to a high of $1,962.50 by December.

Based on those historical trends, we believe gold could repeat that election year success. In fact, we’re already seeing it happen.




Since January 2024, gold already ran from a low of about $2,050 to a high of $2,433.30. Heading into the election, it could potentially test $2,500, even $2,600 on election uncertainty, and a host of other geopolitical uncertainties.

Unfortunately, our crystal ball is in the shop, but that’s our best prediction at this point.

Digging a bit deeper, we can see the opportunity emerge in gold mining stocks, such as Newmont Corp. (NEM), for example, going back to 2004.

Newmont (NEM)

Yielding 2.46%, Newmont is the world’s leading gold company and a producer of copper, silver, zinc and lead. Even better, its world-class portfolio of assets, prospects and talent is anchored in favorable mining jurisdictions in Africa, Australia, Latin America & Caribbean, North America, and Papua New Guinea. It’s also the only gold producer listed in the S&P 500 Index.

And, according to CEO Tom Palmer, it’s a “once-in-a-generation buy for anyone who’s thinking of putting a few dollars into gold equity.”

Much like gold, NEM has a strong history of running ahead of elections, too.

Well, with the exception of 2008.

  • Prior to the 2004 presidential election, NEM ran from about $29 in January to a November high of $34.65.
  • In 2008, NEM plummeted with the overall market thanks to the subprime fiasco.
  • In 2012, after finding support at $35, NEM ran to about $42 ahead of the election.
  • Prior to the 2016 election, NEM ran from a January low of about $15 to $30.87 by the November elections.
  • Prior to the 2020 election, NEM ran from a January low of about $37.50 to nearly $60 by the November elections.

It’s even seeing a good deal of strength ahead of the 2024 elections, as well. In fact, since January, NEM ran from about $37 to a recent high of $41.39.

Earnings haven’t been too shabby either.

In the first quarter of 2024, “Newmont delivered a strong first quarter operational performance, producing 2.2 million gold equivalent ounces and generating over $1.4 billion in cash from operations before working capital changes,” said CEO Palmer.

“Underpinned by the gold industry’s leading portfolio of Tier 1 gold and copper operations, we remain well-positioned to achieve our full-year guidance and deliver meaningful synergies and productivity improvements from the combined portfolio. We remain focused on delivering on the commitments we laid out at the beginning of this year, creating an attractive value proposition for new and existing investors during this unique time in the gold industry.”




Barrick Gold (GOLD)

With a yield of 2.4%, Barrick Gold (GOLD) operates mines and projects in North and South America, Africa, Papua New Guinea and Saudi Arabia, its portfolio spans the world’s most prolific gold districts in the world. It also has plans to boost its mine output by about 30% by the end of the decade.

Better, it has an attractive asset base with about 69 million ounces in proven and probable reserves.

Helping, the company says its on schedule to meet production targets for 2024. “Despite lower production in Q1 due to planned maintenance and mining of lower grade ores, resulting in slightly higher costs, the company expects to increase production and reduce costs in the following quarters,” said TipRanks.com.

Much like Newmont, Barrick also has a strong history of running ahead of elections.

  • Prior to the 2004 presidential election, GOLD ran from about $17.50 in January to a November high of $19.32. Then, following a post-election dip to about $16.50, it ran to a high of about $23 a share later in 2005.
  • In 2008, GOLD plummeted with the overall market thanks to the subprime fiasco.
  • In 2012, after finding support at around $27, GOLD ran to about $42 ahead of the election. It then collapsed to a low of about $12.
  • Prior to the 2016 election, GOLD ran from a January low of about $6.70 to $19.80 as it neared the November elections.
  • Prior to the 2020 election, GOLD ran from a January low of about $17 to nearly $28 by the November elections.

It’s also seeing a good deal of strength ahead of the 2024 elections, as well. In fact, since bottoming out at around $14.50 in February after a rough start to the year, it’s now up to $16.67 and running.

Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ)

Or, if you prefer to diversify at a lower cost, there’s an ETF like the Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ). With an expense ratio of 0.35%, the SGDJ ETF seeks investment results that correspond (before fees and expenses) generally to the performance of its underlying index, the Solactive Junior Gold Miners Custom Factors Index. The Index aims to track the performance of small-cap gold companies whose stocks are listed on regulated exchanges.

Some of its top holdings include Lundin Gold Inc., Seabridge Gold, Equinox Gold, Victoria Gold, Westgold Resources, Osisko Mining, K92 Mining Inc., Novagold Resources, Regis Resources, New Gold Inc., Sabina Gold & Silver, Argonaut Gold, Centerra Gold, Coeur Mining, Skeena Resources, and K92 Mining to name a few.

Even better, the portfolio, which holds 45 stocks, is rebalanced semi-annually.