Factbox-Wall Street sees gray skies ahead for equities as Fed tightens policy

Jun 21, 2022

(Reuters) -With inflation in the United States running at levels not seen in four decades, market participants worry the Federal Reserve will need to be overly aggressive with rate hikes to cool price rises, which might end up tipping the economy over into a recession.

These concerns have led to a rout in U.S. equities in recent months, and prompted banks to roll out bearish forecasts. [.N]

Here are some estimates from major banks on the possibility of a recession in the United States:


Bank Commentary on New year-end PT

recession price target

for S&P 500

Goldman Estimates a 30% 4,300 4,900

Sachs chance of a

recession in the

U.S. over the

next year

Barclays Plc Risks to S&P 500 4,500* 4,800

“remain firmly

stacked to the

downside” given





Wells Fargo Expects a mild 4,200-4,400 4,500-4,700

U.S. recession

at the end of

2022, early

2023; Cuts

year-end 2022

GDP growth

target to 1.5%

from 2.2%.

Bank of Sees 40% chance 4,500 4,600

America Corp of U.S.

recession next


Credit Says As low as

Suisse there is a high 3,350 in

recession risk bear-market

for the U.S. in scenario

the second half

of 2023 and for

Europe this year

JPMorgan Says Fed’s 75 4,900* 5,050

Chase & Co bps rate hike

increases risk

of recession

starting later

this year or in


HSBC Expects a severe 4,450 4,900

Holdings PLC slowdown in

global growth


in Q2 and Q3 of


UBS Group AG Does 4,300

not expect a 3,900*

U.S. or global

recession in

2022 or 2023,

but says risks

of a hard

landing are


Deutsche CEO 4,750 5,250

Bank AG flags


recession risk

in 2023 in

Europe and U.S.

Source: Research notes from banks, *media reports

(Reporting by Niket Nishant and Manya Saini in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Amy Caren Daniel)


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